Was the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtanis $700 million deal a good one?

The Athletic has live coverage of Shohei Ohtanis first Dodgers press conference The question of Shohei Ohtanis next payday has been percolating ever since he wrapped up his first MVP season in 2021. Everyone could do the math. The greatest player ever was destined to get the biggest payday ever. Speculation about the number has

The Athletic has live coverage of Shohei Ohtani’s first Dodgers press conference

The question of Shohei Ohtani’s next payday has been percolating ever since he wrapped up his first MVP season in 2021. Everyone could do the math. The greatest player ever was destined to get the biggest payday ever. Speculation about the number has equaled speculation about which team would pay it.

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Ohtani signed the largest contract by total value in pro sports history. He inked a 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, a contract that also includes what sources called “unprecedented” deferrals and with no opt-outs. He froze the baseball world during last week’s Winter Meetings, and it took until Saturday for him to finally ink the deal. The process, led by Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, was shrouded in secrecy.

It’s money Ohtani has earned after stacking up what were arguably the three greatest seasons in baseball history. But now the question becomes, is it the money he’s worth? Can he live up to this deal? And were the Dodgers wise in investing this much capital into a player rehabbing from his second right elbow surgery?

There are many factors to consider in this equation. The revenue Ohtani generates is among the most important. The Dodgers got their guy — the most coveted free agent ever. Now, we’ll assess if they made a good deal.

Where does this contract stack up?

After a weeks-long, secretive process, Shohei Ohtani will bring his talents to the Dodgers. (Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

Ohtani’s $700 million deal blows everyone out of the water. The richest baseball deal on record belongs to Ohtani’s ex-teammate, Mike Trout. He inked a 12-year, $426.5 million extension in March of 2019 at the age of 27. Dodgers superstar Mookie Betts made $365 million on a 12-year deal signed in 2020 (though $115 million of that money is deferred).

Aaron Judge ($360 million), Manny Machado ($350 million), Francisco Lindor ($341 million), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($340 million) and Bryce Harper ($330 million) are all in this conversation too. Only 12 players have ever signed for at least $300 million. Most of those have been extensions. Judge’s deal was the most earned in free agency.

There’s a legitimate question of what Juan Soto will make in free agency next offseason. He’ll be 26, meaning Soto could be looking at around a 14-year deal.

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Still, it’s hard to imagine anything will top what Ohtani got. And for good reason. When healthy, he’s a two-way player. And his marketing value makes it easier for the Dodgers to know it’ll get some return on its massive investment.

What other revenue does Ohtani bring in?

Ohtani is, by far, the most marketable player in the game. He netted $40 million in endorsements in 2023, according to Sportico. The next highest was Trout, who earned $5 million.

It’s impossible to know exactly how much he’s worth to the teams that he plays for, but it is significant.

“It’ll pay for itself within six or seven years,” said one MLB evaluator. “He’s literally just a money factory. Even just on advertising alone. All the eyeballs from Japan. He’s like Michael Jordan to them. He’s like Taylor Swift.”

Ohtani’s presence instantly makes his team more internationally relevant. Every game will be broadcast live in Japan. And Japanese advertising made up a significant portion of the Angels’ stadium signage in recent years. His jersey was the most popular in the game. And fans traveled from half a world away to see him.

Simply put, the risk of this expensive contract is minimized by a guaranteed revenue stream that exists by having Ohtani on the roster.

What are people saying?

While there seems to be a consensus that Ohtani may or may not play like a $700 million player through the duration of his 10-year deal, no one is surprised this is what he got paid.

“From the agent’s perspective, I’m pushing down everybody’s throat that you’re getting the greatest athlete who ever lived,” said one agent. “… Do I think he’s worth it? Yeah, I’d say it’s worth it.”

“I would say yes, he’s worth it,” said one executive. “Beyond being one of the most talented players in the league and still in his prime, the makeup is also outstanding, as far as a teammate and worker. You can guarantee he’s going to put in the effort to stay healthy and productive for the length of the deal.”

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One scout told The Athletic that he wouldn’t have hesitated until it reached $800 million — making it clear that many around the game don’t view Ohtani’s recent elbow surgery as a significant impediment to Ohtani’s earning power.

“Even if you’re only getting a good baseball player for five or six years,” said another evaluator, “then he will have paid for himself. Or come extremely close to paying for himself.

Not everyone feels the same way, however. Another evaluator said that offering a mega deal could be worth it in a given year depending on playoff and championship probabilities. But, “anecdotally, I feel like the mega deals backfire more often than not.”

What about his long-term future as a two-way player?

While Ohtani will be limited to DHing in 2024, there is precedent for returning from a second ligament injury. (Sam Hodde / Getty Images)

It’s still not completely clear what elbow procedure Ohtani underwent, though the Los Angeles Times reported it was a second Tommy John surgery. That will keep him off the mound for at least all of the 2024 season, meaning that the Dodgers can only use him as a designated hitter. This isn’t unprecedented; Bryce Harper, strictly a position player, made his return from Tommy John surgery as a full-time DH only before he was healthy enough to begin working at first base.

But Harper’s value isn’t as directly tied to his ability on both sides of the ball as Ohtani’s is.

“If you’re a team, you’re like, ‘S–t, are going to spend $500 million, close to $600 (million) for a potential DH only?’” the agent said recently. “That’s a lot of f–king money you’re spending.

“I do think he is worth it because he is a two-way guy. Nobody knows (how) the two-way piece is going to be a factor for potentially a year and a half (after surgery). I think that changes the dynamic a little bit.”

The expectation remains that Ohtani will return to the mound. Balelo has made it fully clear that is Ohtani’s intention. Two-time ligament repairs don’t have a spotless track record, but Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon are clear success stories. Dodgers star right-hander Walker Buehler is on track to return from his second Tommy John surgery this April.

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His longevity at the spot is another long-term issue, though Ohtani played outfield during his time in NPB with the Nippon-Ham Fighters and grades out as a strong runner and presumably strong thrower should he have to move off pitching at some point later in his career.

“Let’s pretend he’s a positive outfielder in the outfield,” an evaluator said. “I mean, is he worth $50 million? Probably not. But still, I mean he could probably still hit well enough to be worth $30 (million). Plus, when you combine his worth in TV and signage and jersey sales, put your logo on that, then if he’s worth $30 (million) on the field, and he’s worth $50 (million) off the field. Pretty good investment.”

(Top photo: Michael Dwyer / Associated Press)

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